Circular Economy: The Missing Link in COP30’s Roadmap

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The most influential and impactful COP is taking place in a location often described as the ecological centre of the Earth — the Amazon, in Belém. It has been 10 years since the Paris Agreement, and countries are once again gathering to renew their commitments to keep global temperatures well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels. Current focus is being placed on renewable energy and improving energy efficiency, which together address around 55% of global GHG emissions. The remaining 45% the hard-to-abate emissions stem from the material economy, a dimension that has received far less attention in the COP30 agenda.

COP30’s Action Agenda and the Implementation Shift

The core value of this COP 30 is described as “implementation,” signalling a shift from commitments to measurable, real-world action across countries. Nations are strengthening their NDCs and attempting to bring climate, nature, and development into a unified framework structured around the six pillars of the COP30 Action Agenda.

From the first day of COP30, several positive decisions have emerged, including the launch of an AI Climate Institute, initiatives to accelerate digital public infrastructure, and efforts to leverage public procurement for climate action. However, goals such as tripling renewable energy and doubling global energy efficiency are ambitious, and far less attention is being given to the material requirements, waste implications, and systemic pathways needed to achieve them.

Currently, the six pillars rest on the foundation of a linear economic model, a structure that risks leading to a Green Paradox, attempting to solve climate change through increased material extraction and waste. Establishing this transition on a circular economy foundation would provide a more resource-efficient basis for the future. A circular system can support and reinforce each pillar

of the Action Agenda, making the transition more cohesive and resilient.

Why Circular Economy Matters for Climate and Development

A circular economy is essential for the transition in energy, industry, and transport. Clean-energy systems such as solar, wind, and electric vehicles depend heavily on mineral resources. Circular strategies alleviate material pressures, enhance supply-chain resilience, and lower overall costs. According to the Ellen Macarthur Foundation Report on how the circular economy tackles climate change, applying circularity to primary industrial materials, cement, aluminium, steel, and plastics, could reduce global emissions by up to 40% by 2050.

Circularity also reduces emissions by encouraging shifts toward shared mobility, improving asset utilisation, and extending product lifetimes through repair, remanufacturing, and lightweighting. These strategies help decouple growth from resource consumption.

Circular principles are equally essential for stewarding forests, oceans, and biodiversity. The circular economy is designed to eliminate waste and pollution, circulate materials, and regenerate nature, aligning with ecological protection goals. Reducing the extraction of virgin materials lowers pressure on ecosystems affected by mining, intensive agriculture, and land degradation. At COP30, the Amazon Conservation Team emphasised the importance of Indigenous territorial rights in achieving climate stability and biodiversity conservation.

The agriculture and food sectors are among the strongest opportunities for circularity, with CE strategies capable of delivering a 49% reduction in global GHG emissions by 2050, according to the UNDP . Regenerative practices enhance soil health, biodiversity, and carbon sequestration while strengthening resilience to climate shocks. Eliminating food waste alone could reduce 1.4 billion tonnes of emissions annually.

Circularity also strengthens cities, infrastructure, and water systems. It promotes efficient use of built spaces, modular and durable buildings, and the use of secondary materials rather than carbon-intensive cement and steel. Circular water strategies enable efficiency, reuse, and aquifer recharge, which are critically needed in response to rising water stress.

For human and social development, circularity is not an end goal but a mechanism to deliver social equity, job creation, and improved well-being. A just transition requires international cooperation, decent jobs, gender-responsive policies, and intergenerational fairness. Brazil’s domestic climate agenda reflects this by emphasising social equity and productivity alongside sustainability.

Finance, technology, and capacity, the final pillar of COP30, are essential to enabling a circular transition. COP30 established the Circle of Finance Ministers to support climate finance for developing countries as part of the Baku to Belém Roadmap, aiming to reach USD 1.3 trillion. Circularity offers financial opportunities through risk reduction and market expansion. Innovations such as AI, IoT, and digital tracking systems improve monitoring, predictive maintenance, and resource optimisation. COP30’s Green Digital Action Hub supports developing nations in applying these tools.

Mitigation, the Emissions Gap, and Why Circularity Is Non-Negotiable

Applying circular strategies has the potential to close more than 70% of the Emissions Gap, according to the 2021 Circularity Gap report. In addition to that, Material handling and resource use account for around 70% of global emissions, making circularity one of the most impactful climate solutions available.

Combined with NDCs, circular strategies could bring the world closer to meeting the Paris temperature goals. Circular models reduce dependence on volatile raw-material supply chains and diversify risk. Strengthening national repair and refurbishment capacity increases resilience to supply-chain disruptions.

If climate action continues at current levels, global temperatures are projected to rise by 3.2°C by 2100. The world is only 7.2% circular, down from 9.1% in 2018, and on this trajectory, Humanity may require the equivalent of three planets by 2050, according to UNDP, to sustain current consumption patterns.

The linear model overlooks a substantial economic value; approximately 95% of the value of plastic packaging (US$80–120 billion annually) is lost after a single use. Resource extraction accounts for 90% of land- and water-related environmental impacts, and global economic losses could reach US$54 trillion by 2100, even under a 1.5°C scenario.

Way Forward: Bringing CE to the Centre of COP30

COP30 is addressing crucial climate issues but is overlooking the material dimension. Without addressing material use and waste, global climate action risks falling short of its goals. The circular economy must be considered the foundation upon which long-term climate strategies are built.

Countries should integrate circularity into updated NDCs and develop national circular economy roadmaps. Developing countries in Asia, Africa, and Latin America can leapfrog the linear trap of the 'take-make-dispose' model and adopt circularity before resources are locked into the linear model. CE must be prioritised in COP decisions, as these decisions will shape the next century. It remains unclear why CE has not been given a more prominent role, despite clear evidence of its potential. Parties must elevate CE in COP30 discussions and allow the six pillars to be strengthened by circular principles that can deliver a sustainable and resilient future. The research shows that tackling climate change and its impact without including Circular economy practices is impossible.

Shifting to CE requires a system change from top to bottom, and it should be initiated now as the adverse effects of climate change are becoming visible everywhere on the earth, from melting icebergs to flash floods in the Himalayas. People responsible for COP 30 making plans to achieve climate resilience without focusing on the way to reach it practically should rethink. The circular economy is the bridge to sustainable, inclusive climate action. Without it, risk of business-as usual.